19 JAN. INTRADAY CALLS

1	19/01	Silver buy	28415	28655	7200
2	14/01	Silver sell	28590	28430	4800
3	14/01	Gold buy	16845	16900	5500
4			Total		17500

INTRADAY CALL FOR 14 DEC 2010.

so no	Date	comm.	entry	exit	Net
1	14/01	Silver buy	27225	27330	3150
2	14/01	Silver sell	27335	27240	2850
3	14/01	Silver buy	27290	27425	4050
4	14/01	natgas buy	261.8	264.5	3375
5	14/01	nat gas sell	262	255	8750
6	14/01	Nickel buy	838	852	3500
7					25675

INTRADAY CALL PROFIT AND LOSSES-

DATE	commodities	buy	sold	p/l
12/15/2009	natural gas buy	228	hold(till date-254)	32500
12/15/2009	silver buy	28050	28260	6300
12/15/2009	gold buy	16980	17068	8800
12/15/2009	crude oil buy	3255	3310	5500
12/15/2009	crude oil sell	3310	3340	-4000
12/16/2009	natural gas buy	249	252	3750
12/16/2009	silver sell	27380	27600	-6600
12/16/2009	nickel buy	778	on hold till date 810	8000
12/16/2009	copper buy	322	hold(target-?)	6000
12/16/2009	silver sell call	27480	27600	-3600
			NET	56000

Possible Fed Won't Hike Rates Until 2012: Fed's Bullard

If the Federal Reserve sticks to the pattern set after the last two recessions, interest rates will remain unchanged until 2012, a Federal Reserve official said Wednesday. Assuming the recession ended this summer, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said interest rate hikes could lie well into the future, assuming the central bank sticks to raising rates between two-and-a-half to three years after the end of a downturn, as it did for the past two recessions. But Bullard cautioned that pattern isn't set in stone, because central bank officials are mindful of the possible mistakes of keeping interest rates too low for too long,

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

U.S. Economy
The U.S. Labor Department said that the producer price index was up .3% in October, but down 1.9% from a year ago, a smaller monthly increase than expected. The December 2010 eurodollars ended up .015 at 98.775.

The Federal Reserve said that industrial production was up .1% in October, weaker than expected.

Foreign demand for U.S. securities is strong in spite of (or due to?) the weak dollar. The U.S. Treasury said that foreign purchases of long-term securities totaled $55.7 billion in September while U.S. purchases of foreign securities totaled $15.0 billion. The December U.S. T-bonds were up 7/32nds at 121.02/32nds.

Grains and Cotton
The corn harvest will wait while the rain continues to fall - today in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Tennessee. Also, the USDA said that Mexico bought 132,619 tons of U.S. corn for this season and 77,364 tons for 2010-2011. December corn ended down a quarter-cent at $4.02.

January soybeans closed up 19.5 cents at $10.295 after the USDA said late yesterday that 89% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Livestock
Late yesterday, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said that beef exports totaled 53,001 tons in September, down 22% from a year ago. Pork exports in September totaled 120,232 tons, up 3% from a year ago. So far this year, beef exports are down 6% from a year ago and pork exports are down 15% from a year ago. February cattle started lower, but closed up .52 at 85.65.

The USDA's Livestock Outlook admitted to uncertainty about cattle prices due to "conflicting effects from the unusually large proportions of heavy-weight feeder cattle placements in the second and third quarters of 2009, the low level of net placements during the second quarter of 2009, and follow-through effects on retail demand as a result of the economic downturn and deepening unemployment."

Concerning hogs, the USDA said that "while somewhat stronger fall prices for hogs and wholesale pork are good news in a year where sector optimism has been all but absent, sub-$40 live hog prices still fall substantially below most producersÕ breakeven thresholds." December hogs finished up 1.62 at 63.97.

Lumber
The National Association of Home Builders index of homebuilder sentiment stayed at 17 in November, another sign of pessimism in the industry. January lumber closed up its $10 maximum daily limit for the second consecutive day ahead of tomorrow's housing starts report.

Metals
The U.S. dollar index traded higher today, helped by some bargain-hunting, but December gold ended up .20 at $1,139.40 anyway.

Currencies
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices were up 1.5% in October from a year ago, up from a 1.1% annual gain the previous month. The December British pound ended down .0041 at $1.6793.

Eurostat said that exports from the EU-27 were estimated to have increased 17% in September, but were still down 19% from a year ago. The December euro closed down 1.30 cents at $1.4853 after ECB President Trichet again made it known that he would like to see a stronger U.S. dollar.

(Possible) Market-Moving News of 2009:

November 3 - IMF sells 200 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India. Gold hits new record high.

October 30 - Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% in September, the best in four months.

October 29 - Chinese officials agreed to end their six-month ban on U.S. pork imports.

October 9 - USDA: Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop estimate at 136 million boxes, less than expected.

October 9 - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly improved from 8.7% to 8.4% in September, the first decline since last fall.

October 8 - ICSG est.: World copper production surplus of 539,000 tons in 2010, up from their April estimate of 400,000 tons.

September 18 - USDA: 492,529 acres of commercial orange trees in Florida, down 1% from a year ago and the lowest total since 1986.

September 11 - First mention of severe drought conditions affecting China's corn crop.

August 21 - This week, Warren Buffett, Joseph Stiglitz, and PIMCO's El Erian all made negative comments about the U.S. dollar.

August 19 - The World Gold Council said that central banks bought 14 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2009 - "the first net purchase by central banks for a considerable length of time."

August 13 - France and Germany surprise markets with .3% positive growth in the second quarter.

August 7 - First improvement in the U.S. unemployment rate since April of 2008.

July 27 - U.S. new home sales up 11% in June, much better than expected.

July 24 - Lowest U.S. cattle inventory in 36 years and lowest cattle on-feed available in 10 years.

June 30 - USDA: 87.04 million planted corn acres, +1% from a year ago, the second most acres since 1946, and much more than expected.

May 26 - India bans futures trading in sugar contracts.

May 21 - USDA estimates that 2009-2010 world ending stocks of sugar will total 19% of annual use, the lowest in 16 years.

May 4 - China's manufacturing index confirms first expansion in nine months.

April 27 - World Health Organization declares swine flu outbreak an international health emergency.

April 22 - China imports record high 296,843 tons of copper in March.

March 18 - Fed will buy $300 billion in Treasuries and $750 billion of mortgage securities.

March 10 - Surprise profit at Citigroup.

dailly calls

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